BIG MARLEY’S UFC 226 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
There’s a good deal of cash to be won this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the primary tournament. I’ll be going heavier than normal this week chasing the significant GPP prizes, and that I will play less cash games than normal. This is actually the first time we have seen a 30k top prize so I think it’s well worth chasing if you have the bankroll for it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling out of the struggle against Brian Ortega, thus we are now down to 11 fights and we should see a great deal of ties on this card with the more popular lineups. If you are chasing that $30K then you will want to try and be a bit different with your lineup so that you can separate yourself from the rest of the field. That said, let us get into a few plays I like as well as my fade of this week.
Cash Game play of this week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is far off from the gambling line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That’s just too much line worth to pass in cash games and that makes Felder that the»free square» this week. Even if he loses this battle, he should be highly owned it will not even damage your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the greatest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so maybe think about preventing the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the cash game play of this week.
GPP play of this week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a bit weird since I just picked Paul Felder as my money play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about ownership. In case Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it will not hurt your lineup since only 10% of lineups didn’t have him and you merely have to be top ~50% of the area to money in money games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. When he loses, that’s half of the area that’s dead without a shot at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% just due to this mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50 percent of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned guy to put you at a much better place of a Royal 1st place win and possibly hitting $30k. Perry has the capability to KO anybody and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it shock you much if Perry could KO him in this fight? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust drama and that’s Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of the week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this fight took place 5 years before, but today we get a evaporating Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can continue to keep this fight standing for many the struggle and that will give him a big edge. He is also dangerous on the ground himself and when he is taken down I believe he is going to have the ability to get back up if he is not able to get a submission of his very own. If Pettis can win a decision then I presume he will pay off his DK price tag and will be a fantastic underdog to use so it is possible to save salary in your lineups. I may also find this fight ending from Pettis dropping Chiesa with a human body kick and if that happens he will likely be on the winning lineup if he can make it happen in around 1.
Fade of this week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think that he wins the struggle, but I don’t see him paying off that large price . He does not fight at a heavy pace and he has not gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins and the floor is where he’ll have his biggest advantage in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and at his wages this week I want at least 91 points from him to pay that much. I would rather pay up for the guys higher priced than Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or Miocic. I will have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will probably be in 0 of them, making him my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
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