BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN 1 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some adequate competitions for us for this Sunday card. The main GPP is that a $10 buy and $20k goes to 1st place, also there’ll be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for this last contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at the $20k prize. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games. With that said, let us get into a few plays I like as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is the safest play on the slate, in my view. I think he’ll be the better fighter anywhere this battle goes, and he should predominate. I enjoy locking that triumph in my cash game and I think he has a good chance at getting 10x his $9.4additional salary. I really do expect him to become hot in tournaments so if you want to fade the ownership there and try to be more contrarian, I would definitely need some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is demanding so that he can continue all 3 rounds and when he can then Luque might only score in the 80s and that won’t win any GPPs. But, we could use an ~80-point triumph in cash games because we just need to beat half the field unlike those tournaments.
GPP drama of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week because of the odds. A bit more than a week ago he was a -255 favorite and that is what led to his elevated $95 price tag. Now he’s only -155 and all the value is on Ngannou at his 7.2k price label. I anticipate Ngannou to be the highest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he will kill off near half the area. Furthermore, if Cain wins he is probably scoring over 100-points. I expect his ownership to really go down the longer his gambling line reduces and that is what makes him a fantastic GPP play. He’s a 0-point floor, so that I don’t care for him as much in money game, but for GPPs we need boom or float to try to get to this 1st place prize.
Underdog play of this week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of the week. He’s $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he is just a +125 underdog. I think he has a good chance of winning this battle and I am choosing him to receive his hand raised. I expect this to be an extremely close battle, but I believe Fili is going to be the fighter striking at the higher pace and that is precisely what I believe do it for him on the judges’ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili with 100+ point upside down but we do not really require that in his $7.4k price tag. I believe he has a good shot at getting at least 10x, so he is playable in all formats for me personally.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I think she will lose, but I think have a hard time seeing her about the $20k lineup at her salary. I enjoy the $9k range a great deal greater than her and all of them have higher ceilings with their grappling-based game programs. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC introduction, but that is because she didn’t utilize grappling there. I don’t see her doing that in this game because I think Evans-Smith has got the edge on the ground and she should be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this fight, then she is going to have to get it done on the toes and I really don’t see her having a high ceiling without a finish. The sole reason to use her is because she is going to be super low possessed, and it will make your lineup contrarian, but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 57-34 for +188.13un (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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