Bleacher Report’s Expert Consensus Week 13 NFL Picks
Will this get any simpler? Based on the way Bleacher Report’s specialist NFL analysts are faring against the spread this year, it surely can’t get much tougher.
Picking at every match, Brad Gagnon Gary Davenport and Brent Sobleski had yet another run in Week 12, falling their record that is joint to 251-259-18. Individually and as a crew, here is the harm through 12 weeks (last week’s documents in parentheses):
1. Gary Davenport: 92-78-6 (7-8)
2. Brent Sobleski: 81-89-6 (7-8)
3. Brad Gagnon: 78-92-6 (5-10)
Consensus choices: 83-87-6 (7-8)
Together with December loomingwe asked longtime sports betting analyst Dave Tuley if there could be some light at the end of the tube to the betting public or when the sportsbooks will last to gain from larger samples in the summer season.
We were given some hope, but not sufficient to get by tuley.
«There was a time under a dozen years ago where I had a bunch of years in a row where I simply killed it the second half of the year and in December,» he explained. «At that moment, I felt as though it was only the time of year once the great teams were overrated and the bad teams were underrated, and with parity what it had been, the underdogs were performing a lot better at the moment.»
But Tuley notes that neither the books nor the bettors have encountered advantages that are significant . «Just as bettors wish to believe that we’re getting smarter the more people see these teams play,» he said,»clearly the oddsmakers are seeing the same things we are, and they are adjusting and making it tough also.»
But he believes it’s possible to pick out lines that were exaggerated by midseason streaks and/or slumps. In particular, he pointed at the 7.5-point distribute in favor of the New Orleans Saints in a road matchup with the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.
With that lineup, oddsmakers are suggesting the Saints would be favored by as many as 13 or 14 points if that game were at New Orleans, which will seem high considering the Cowboys are riding a three-game winning streak.
«That is [a manifestation of] the way the Saints have been playing,» Tuley said. «For the novels to balance their action, they must place it at that amount.»
It is something to keep in mind as we enter the final month of this 2018 regular season. It might not save your season as a bettor, but if you’ve been following us annually, any advice helps.
Here is what Davenport, Gagnon and Sobleski are thinking heading into the initial 16-game slate in two or more months.
Read more: blackhillsyouthfootball.com