Making A Fair Odds Line
Over the years, I’ve gotten many inquiries about fair odds lines — mainly, how can a horseplayer go about making one and what are they good for?
Let’s kick off the conversation with the previous question — after all, what’s the use in creating something without first knowing what it will? (I have seen enough science fiction films to understand this is a terrible thought ) In other words, a fair odds line provides gamers with a means of making logical wagering decisions.
As an example, most players know that betting to win on a horse that’s 2-5 or less does not make a lot of sense. To make any money on such steeds, a gambler would need to money at least 71 percent of their time, which is extremely unlikely (not to mention how the place and show payoffs will probably be just as high or even higher than the win yield in some cases, creating a win wager seem that much more foolish).
However very few punters take the next logical step and delegate particular minimum gambling chances to all (or even some) of their race contenders.
The point where there comes a fair odds line in this is.
A fair chances line attempts to quantify a handicapper’s feelings about a specific race and provide a framework for better money management decisions. Statements like»I knew I should have used that horse» are, theoretically at least, foreign to a person who employs a reasonable odds line on a regular basis.
This is because stakes are created — or not made — based on whether the horse in question is an overlay (post-time odds greater than its fair odds) or underlay (post-time odds less than its fair odds). Because of this, the angst of deciding whether or not to incorporate a horse in the wagers is, in effect, made by the gambling public.
Thus, without further ado, let’s proceed to the main course — constructing the line:
A) For every horse, assign odds which you believe are fair. In case it will help, use the morning line as a guide.
B) Convert these odds to some percentage.
C) Add all of the individual percentages together to acquire the total line percent. Whether this amount is precisely 100 percent (plus or minus a couple of tenths of a point due to rounding discrepancies), you’ve got what’s called a»true» line, which is exactly what I personally strive for.
However, lots of value handicappers prefer to mirror the tote board and comprise takeout and breakage at the equation. In this case, a total line percentage of up to 125 percent is OK. Beyond this, though, I would propose re-calculating or massaging your reasonable odds. Perhaps the horse you recorded at 2-1 ought to be 5-2 instead. Maybe a couple of the horses you tabbed at 15-1 should really be 20-1. Continue making adjustments such as this until the entire line percentage meets your goal.Of course, I am aware of how this can be easier said than done and will almost surely require practice and a fair amount of patience. Underlays you tossed will triumph — sometimes at or over their fair chances, as a result of an influx of late money into the pool; overlays you wagered on will magically transform into underlays for precisely the identical reason.
But don’t stop trying. Bear in mind, most gamblers lose since they bet a lot of underlays. The legendary punter George E. Smith («Pittsburg Phil») said it best when he mentioned:»You cannot be a successful horse player if you’re going to find the worst of the price all the time.»
Reasonable chances ensure that you don’t.
Before I leave this subject there are two major things to consider as you proceed along the path toward becoming a worth bettor:
1) A horse is not an overlay or underlay simply because your fair odds say it is. After all, your lineup may be — and in many cases is wrong.
Don’t get too cocky and dismiss the crowd’s opinion entirely. If a horse that you think should be 5-2 is 20-1 about the board, ask yourself why. Is there something you overlooked, a element that you weighted too heavily or too lightly? To put it differently, look for mistakes on your calculations before you rush into the windows to bet your life savings.
Furthermore, make sure to check your fair chances. They should win in the speed you say they do. What is more, they should keep winning at the rate (or quite near it) since the actual odds change. If your 2-1 shots acquire a third of the time total, but just one percent of the period when the horse is a supposed overlay, you have definitely got a problem.
2) In respect to your fair chances line , it is worth it to remember something that betting guru Dick Mitchell heard in the course of his fair odds studies. After years of looking for a lineup that adequately reflected the functioning of the best three wagering options (again, contrary to that which racetrack charlatans proclaim, the betting pools are usually effective ), Mitchell heard a tv commentator discuss the»80/20 rule»
First advanced by business consultant Joseph M. Juran, the 80/20 principle, or Pareto Principle, is the notion that 80 percent of consequences stem from only 20% of all causes. 20 percent of the planet’s population control 80% of its sources, 20 percent of the people on Earth have 80 percent of the ability (not necessarily exactly the exact same 20 percent, mind you) and so forth and so forth.
From a betting standpoint, Mitchell realized that a fair odds line must reflect that same fundamental truth. Hence, he began assigning 80 percent of his evaluations to his top contenders and the rest 20 percent to the rest of the field — with great success.
I bring this up because many rookie line manufacturers will realize that their fair odds are too much like — a great deal of 3-1, 4-1 and 6-1 opportunities — and not very reflective of real-life betting trends (which should be one of those goals). From reassigning 80 percent (or thereabouts) of the probabilities to the best choices, this may be prevented.
Hopefully this helps aspiring worth bettors become proficient at their craft and, as Pittsburg Phil said, avoid becoming the»worst of the price all the time.»
Read more: odds super bowl